About Me

Name:John of Arc
Biography
Loading...

Create Your Own Blog Find Other Townhall Blogs

Comments

  • Way
    A way out of the...
    John of Arc
  • No Way
    A way out of the...
    skep41

Archives

Blog Search

Blog Roll

 
[Click to edit me]

Obama’s Next Play

When the Illinois Democrats began to plan to promote Obama as their Presidential candidate they needed a strategy that would differentiate him, first from Clinton (the most polarizing candidate in the field) and then from the most likely Republican candidates (among them Giuliani and Romney). Given Obama’s youth and lack of accomplishments their possible strategies were limited. But given the landscape of the 2008 campaign and Obama’s charisma, the dual strategies of Obama the Unifier and Time for a Change were selected. A minor theme that Obama added later as an embellishment was Obama the post-Partisan, an above-the-fray, positive person and campaigner. 

The Unifier thing worked against Hillary but she easily adopted the Change part, as did most of the Republican candidates with some degree of credibility. But when Obama considered the less likely McCain, they had serious problems. McCain had real experience at crossing the aisle as a unifying political force.

In short, McCain could beat Obama as the Unifier and Change did not differentiate Obama very much from anyone. Plus McCain had charisma and geniality. That gave more impetus to his promise of Change and to his appearance as a positive person and campaigner than any of Obama’s anticipated opponents.

What to do? Staying positive was going to limit his abilities to defeat McCain. So, abandon that minor theme! Obama has to go on the attack in the general election campaign and hope that his charisma and wellspring of good will would allow his supporters nationwide to suspend disbelief in what they were seeing. After all, they want to win as much as Obama and the Illinois Democrats.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

A way out of the Obama-Wright Conflict

With Obama imploding but still a cinch to win a majority of the elected delegates but not a majority of all delegates, the super-delegates have a problem. How can they hold the factions of the party together (not anger the Blacks), have a chance to win in November and, most importantly, maintain their positions of leadership within the party?

They can vote for Obama and watch him and Rev. Jeremiah Wright become more of a day-time soap opera and a late-night punch line. They can vote for Hillary Clinton and watch the African-American faction abstain in November or even instigate a rebellion.    

This problem is also an opportunity for the super-delegates and is in fact their raison d'etat: Keep the party members from hurting themselves and keep the old guard in control of the party.

The super-delegates should agree in June to vote for Hillary as soon as she names an African-American as her VP.  Some leading candidates would be Jesse Jackson Jr. (Congressman, IL), Deval Patrick (Governor, Massachusetts) and Harold Ford (former Congressman, Tennessee). All three are part of the next-generation, as is Barack Obama. Since Illinois and Massachusetts are already in the Democrat column for November, Ford makes more sense on that one measure. One footnote: The order of the announcements is important due to the inconstancy of the Clintons.  

I suspect that by July African-Americans will have forgotten all about Obama, just about as quickly as he burst upon the scene and as quickly as Republicans have forgotten all about Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee. Their conventions in September will confirm the probity and finality of their selections of Clinton-Ford and McCain-whomever, two long months before the general election.   

This arrangement between the super-delegates and the Clintons will keep the African-Americans in the party, give the Democrats a fighting chance in November and, most importantly, keep control of the party in their hands.

Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (2) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive
« Previous1Next »